No. Southwest Florida prices came down from the 2020–2022 spike and have stayed close to flat since, which is what I said in the August 2026 video above. The public numbers back it up. The Naples-area median closed price in August 2026 matched August 2022, and both Naples and Cape Coral–Fort Myers have fewer homes for sale than they did a year ago.
What did prices actually do after 2022?
Prices rose by double digits for several years through 2022, then eased by a few percentage points a year. In Naples, the August 2026 median landed exactly where it was in August 2022.
That earlier pace wasn’t normal, and it was never going to last. Since 2022, we’ve had modest declines. That’s not a crash. That’s gravity.
The Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR), which covers Collier County outside Marco Island, published its August 2026 report on September 25:
| NABOR, Naples area | August 2025 | August 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median closed price, all homes | $585,000 | $575,000 | −1.7% |
| Single-family median | $730,000 | $717,500 | −1.7% |
| Condo median | $406,500 | $417,500 | +2.7% |
| Closed sales | 615 | 622 | +1.1% |
| Active listings | 4,892 | 4,093 | −16.3% |
| Months of supply | 8.1 | 5.4 | −33.3% |
| Average days on market | 107 | 99 | −7.5% |
NABOR also noted that the August 2022 median was $575,000, the same as in August 2026. Year to date, the single-family median was up 4.1%, while the condo median was down 4.3%.
Is there a glut of homes for sale?
There isn’t a glut. Listings are down from August 2025 in both metros, and Naples is within the range most agents call balanced.
In our August 2026 video, I said single-family inventory was at a healthy, balanced level, while condo inventory ran a little higher. Jarrett put numbers on it in his July 2026 video: as of June, single-family supply was 5.9 months in Naples, 4.6 in Bonita Springs and 5.2 in Cape Coral. He uses six months or less as the line for a balanced market.
Realtor.com’s active listing counts, published through the St. Louis Fed, point in the same direction:
| Active listings in August | 2019 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naples–Marco Island metro | 5,957 | 5,556 | 4,676 |
| Cape Coral–Fort Myers metro | 7,973 | 11,161 | 9,351 |
Naples has fewer listings than it did before the pandemic. Cape Coral–Fort Myers is down about 16% from 2025 but remains above 2019, giving Lee County buyers more homes to consider.
Where do buyers have the upper hand right now?
Mostly in negotiations. You’re not competing with 14 cash offers and a prayer. And nobody is writing a letter about why they deserve the house more than you do.
Builders are negotiating again. Incentives and upgrades are back, along with help on closing costs. NABOR’s February report quoted a builder’s sales director who said incentives were still driving sales, including rates one to one and a half points below market.
Sellers who bought before 2022 are sitting on substantial equity. They’re motivated, but they aren’t desperate. That difference matters at the negotiating table. A buyer’s market with a seller who isn’t panicking is the real estate version of finding parking right in front of the restaurant.
That window is narrowing in Naples. NABOR recorded 790 price decreases in August 2026, down 30.2% from a year earlier, while pending sales for the year were up 21.7%. Jarrett’s point from July still holds: updated, well-priced homes in sought-after communities move fast. A dated condo facing big assessments tends to sit.
What about the property tax change?
In the video, I said Florida passed a new property tax amendment this summer. More precisely, the Legislature passed a proposed constitutional amendment during its June 2026 special session. Amendment 3 will appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot and needs 60% of the vote to pass.
If voters approve it, the non-school homestead exemption would rise to as much as $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 for people who were permanent Florida residents as of December 31, 2026. Later arrivals would wait until their fifth year of exemption for the larger amount.
The yearly cap on second homes would also drop from 10% to 5% for non-school taxes. Jarrett’s homestead and domicile post explains who qualifies and what remains undecided.
What should you actually worry about?
Start with insurance and flood exposure. Then read the HOA’s finances. None of this is a sky-is-falling story. It’s homework.
- Insurance is a real conversation, not a scary one. Citizens cut its multiperil rates on homeowners policies by 8.8% on average for 2026, and 20 new insurers have entered Florida since the reforms, according to the state regulator in May 2026. If you’re buying a second home, Citizens’ glide path allows rates on non-primary residences to rise by as much as 50% a year.
- The federal flood program is authorized through December 11, 2026. Beginning January 1, 2027, every Citizens homeowners policy with wind coverage must also carry flood coverage. Condo unit policies are exempt.
- After Surfside, HOA and condo reserve studies are where the surprises hide. Jarrett’s condo rules post lists the documents to request.
What did our earlier market videos say?
These aren’t our first market takes. Here’s how the earlier ones hold up now.
In my August 21, 2025 weekly update, I went through one day of MLS activity from Cape Coral to Marco Island: 128 new listings, 94 closings, 112 homes going under contract and 215 price reductions. Over the prior seven days, 325 single-family listings came on the market while 327 went under contract. My point was simple: inventory was tightening, and a well-priced home would sell. A year later, NABOR’s inventory is down 16.3%.
In our October 2025 video, recorded October 3 during the federal shutdown, Jarrett and I spoke with Sean Wilkins of Fairview Lending. New flood policies couldn’t be bound while the program was shut down, forcing some closings into extensions. The lapse ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025.
Our advice was “marry the house, date the rate.” You may be able to refinance later if you qualify, but you can’t renegotiate the purchase price. The rates discussed in that video were October 2025 figures, not offers. Talk to a licensed lender about your situation.
Both 2025 videos also covered property tax “elimination.” What reached the ballot is different: Amendment 3 raises the homestead exemption. It doesn’t end the tax.
If you’re up north wondering whether you missed the window, you didn’t. Take a look at homes for sale, or start with Naples, Bonita Springs or Cape Coral. And call me when you want the real numbers on a specific house.
